The number of global scrapped EV (BEV+PHEV) estimated by SNE Research is 4.11 million units in 2030 and 42.27 million units in 2040. In terms of battery capacity, it is estimated to be 338GWh in 2030 and 3,339GWh in 2040.
Global Scrapped EV (BEV+PHEV) and Scrapped Battery Forecast
(Source:
<2023> Recycling/Reuse Technology Trend and Market Outlook, SNE Research)
With more and more electric vehicles distributed, there is an emerging issue regarding scrapped battery from EVs and related management. Waste battery from EVs go through battery diagnosis to determine whether it will be used for different purposes such as energy storage system (ESS) after reassembling or only valuable metals such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium will be extracted from it. The former case is called reuse, while the latter is referred as recycling.
Today, the price of lithium-ion battery used for electric vehicle is mostly determined by the cost of cathode materials. Key cathode minerals such as nickel, cobalt, manganese, and lithium are highly dependent on import from overseas. Given this circumstance, battery recycling is regarded as a way to lower the dependence on overseas suppliers for those key materials. In addition, battery recycling may reduce the carbon emission from battery manufacturing, making it essential to recycling waste battery for the sake of environment. Particularly in Europe, waste battery recycling is slated for being mandatory by regulations.
The battery recycling market can be categorized into two sectors: recycling of waste battery and recycling of scraps collected from the battery production process. Waste battery may be reused or recycled, while those scrapes from the production process are all subject to recycling. In Korea, waste battery recycling is led by several companies including POSCO, EcoPro, Korea Zinc, and SungEel HiTech at the forefront.
According to SNE Research market forecast, the global recycling market is expected to reach 1.436 Mil ton in 2030 and 5.009 Mil ton in 2040 based on metal. If converted into value, it is expected to be US$ 53.6 Bil in 2030 and US$174.1 Bil in 2040.
Waste Battery Recycling Market Outlook (Based on Weight)
Waste Battery Recycling Market Outlook (Based on Value)
(Source: <2023> Recycling/Reuse Technology
Trend and Market Outlook, SNE Research)